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Accelerating the Integration of Variable Generation into the Electric Grid

March 18, 2015

Recently, I was invited to speak at the Utility Variable Generation Integration Group Conference, which was focused on improving the integration of variable generation into the electric power system. UVIG was established in 1989 and currently has more than 160 members from the U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia and New Zealand. The conference was well-attended with participants from Europe, North America and Asia.

This year’s conference topics included a tutorial on stochastic forecasting methods as they apply to quantifying wind and solar generation forecast uncertainty, how to run a solar and wind forecasting trial, integrating stochastic generation forecasts into an EMS system, and industry trends with distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) forecasting.

During the conference, I participated on a panel that discussed ways to incorporate distributed PV into a load forecast. My co-presenters, Jim Blatchford of the California ISO and Dr. Tom Hoff of Clean Power Research, and I discussed how we incorporate the PV forecasts that Clean Power Research develops into the real-time load forecast model Itron developed for the California ISO. If you would like to find out more about the how we do this, feel free to reach me at frank.monforte@itron.com.

If you are interested in learning more about wind and solar generation forecasting, you should consider attending a future UVIG conference.

 

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By Dr. Frank A. Monforte

Director of Forecasting Solutions

Dr. Frank A. Monforte is Director of Forecasting Solutions at Itron, where he is an internationally recognized authority in the areas of real-time load and generation forecasting, retail portfolio forecasting, and long-term energy forecasting. Dr. Monforte’s real-time forecasting expertise includes authoring the load forecasting models used to support real-time system operations for the North American system operators, the California ISO, the New York ISO, the Midwest ISO, ERCOT, the IESO, and the Australian system operators AEMO and Western Power. Recent efforts include authoring embedded solar, solar plant, and wind farm generation forecast models used to support real-time operations at the California ISO. Dr. Monforte founded the annual ISO/TSO Forecasting Summit that brings together ISO/TSO forecasters from around the world to discuss forecasting challenges unique to their organizations. He directs the implementation of Itron’s Retail Forecasting System, including efforts for energy retailers operating in the United Kingdom, Netherlands, France, Belgium, Italy, Australia, and the U.S. These systems produce energy forecasts for retail portfolios of interval metered and non-interval metered customers. The forecast models he has developed support forecasting of power, gas and heat demand and forecasting of wind, solar, landfill gas, and mine gas generation. Dr. Monforte presides over the annual Itron European Energy Forecasting Group meeting that brings together European Energy Forecasters for an open exchange of ideas and solutions. Dr. Monforte directed the development of Itron’s Statistically Adjusted End-Use Forecasting model and supporting data. He founded the Energy Forecasting Group, which directs primary research in the area of long-run end-use forecasting. Recent efforts include designing economic indices that provide long-run forecast stability during periods of economic uncertainty. Email Frank at frank.monforte@itron.com, or click here to connect on LinkedIn.